KATHMANDU: International tourist arrivals grew two percent in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people travelling internationally between January and March, about six million more than the same period last year, even as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over global travel demand, according to the latest World Tourism Barometer published by UN Tourism.

While January and February saw cumulative growth of 2.5 percent, March slowed sharply to just 0.4 percent as the conflict's impact on flight routes, traveller confidence, and fuel prices began to ripple outward. UN Tourism now expects the crisis to reduce full-year growth by one to two percentage points below its earlier forecast of three to four percent for 2026, depending on how long and how widely the conflict extends.

"The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation," said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais. "Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience,  this reinforces tourism's wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself."

Regional breakdown

Europe remained the world's largest travel destination region, recording over 130 million international arrivals in Q1, a four percent increase building on strong 2025 momentum. Central Eastern Europe led with six percent growth, while Southern Mediterranean and Northern Europe each posted four percent. Some European destinations benefited from the redirection of tourism flows away from the Middle East.

Africa also grew four percent, with North Africa recording an 18 percent surge in March alone, and Sub-Saharan Africa matching the regional average.

Asia and the Pacific posted three percent growth overall, though performance was uneven. February saw a strong nine percent increase, while March slowed to two percent as disruptions to Middle Eastern air hubs contributed to a 27 percent decline in South Asia specifically. Oceania led the region with nine percent growth, and North-East Asia posted five percent. Overall, arrivals in Asia remained 11 percent below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

The Americas recorded two percent growth, with Central America surging 18 percent, though South America slipped one percent. The region could see a boost in the coming months as Canada, the United States, and Mexico co-host the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June and July.

The Middle East saw arrivals fall 14 percent in Q1, with several Gulf destinations recording sharp declines. Egypt bucked the regional trend with a robust 16 percent increase.

Standout performers

Among the best-performing destinations by arrival growth in Q1 2026 were Paraguay at 46 percent, New Caledonia at 45 percent, El Salvador at 43 percent, Mongolia at 39 percent, Palau at 37 percent, and Uzbekistan at 37 percent. In tourism receipts, Pakistan led with 60 percent growth, followed by South Korea at 38 percent, Morocco at 24 percent, Brunei at 22 percent, and Brazil at 12 percent.

The cost factor

The UN Tourism Panel of Tourism Experts survey identified the Middle East conflict, high transport and accommodation costs, and broader economic pressures as the three main challenges facing international tourism in 2026. Nearly two thirds of experts said the conflict is negatively affecting travel demand for their destination.

Rising jet fuel prices — driven by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — are increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity across regions, not just in the Middle East. This is pushing up the overall cost of travel in an already inflationary environment for tourism services. Experts expect travellers to increasingly seek value-for-money options and destinations closer to home in response to elevated prices.

Cautious outlook for summer

The UN Tourism Confidence Index, monitoring sentiment among 300 tourism professionals globally, gives the May to August 2026 period a score of 105 out of 200 — cautiously positive, but below the 117 recorded for January to April. Around 39 percent of panel experts expect better or much better performance over the summer months, while 31 percent anticipate worse results compared to the same period in 2025.

On the aviation side, IATA data shows international air traffic grew four percent in Q1 2026, with positive performance across all regions except the Middle East, which contracted 16 percent. Global hotel occupancy reached 64 percent in March 2026, matching March 2025 levels, with Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific all recording 65 percent occupancy.