KATHMANDU: A drier-than-normal monsoon is forecast across parts of the Hindu Kush Himalaya this year — but scientists are warning that lower rainfall will not translate into lower risk, with intense rain bursts, rising temperatures, and shrinking water reserves combining to make the 2026 season potentially more dangerous, not less.

The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026, published by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), projects below-normal rainfall across several countries including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region during the June to September monsoon season.

Less rain, more risk

The central warning from the outlook is that a weaker monsoon does not mean a safer one. Long dry spells are expected to be punctuated by sudden, intense downpours — a pattern that creates precisely the conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly across mountain terrain.

"Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern," said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD. "Communities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories. The outlook points to a drier monsoon overall, but that does not mean lower risk."

The same season may bring both drought and flood conditions — dry stretches that stress agriculture and water supply, followed by concentrated rainfall events that overwhelm river systems and destabilise slopes.

A depleted water buffer

Compounding the hazard picture is the state of snowpack entering the monsoon. Warmer-than-normal conditions have reduced snow persistence across the region, weakening the natural water buffer that normally moderates river flows and groundwater recharge between seasons.

"Lower snow persistence means the region is entering the monsoon with a reduced seasonal water buffer," said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook, warning that river systems will be more sensitive to rainfall variability as a result.

Implications for tourism and communities

For Nepal's mountain tourism sector, the outlook carries direct implications. Landslides and flash floods are among the most disruptive hazards for trekking routes, road connectivity, and remote community access — and the forecast pattern of erratic rainfall following prolonged dry spells increases that risk.

"Erratic rainfall following long dry spells increases the risk of landslides," said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of Rika India. "This can worsen socio-economic pressures, including migration, rising food prices, energy stress, and disruptions to tourism."

The outlook also highlights growing pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, with both rural and urban areas facing heightened vulnerability through the season.

Coordination and early warning

Scientists are stressing that managing this monsoon will require stronger coordination between government agencies, technical bodies, and local authorities — and that the traditional model of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is no longer adequate.

"Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately," said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Adviser at ICIMOD. "Early warning systems, short-term forecasts, and locally driven preparedness need to work together to address increasingly complex hazards."

"The era of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is over," added Saswata Sanyal, DRR Specialist at ICIMOD. "Anticipatory action and early warning must now be the foundation."

Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and Disaster Risk Reduction Lead at ICIMOD, said the growing unpredictability of the monsoon is already creating coordination challenges across South Asia. "Preparedness now requires stronger coordination between government, technical agencies, and local authorities," she said.

The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 draws on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is designed to support governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in planning ahead of the monsoon season.